A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
